# Hormuz Stays Shut Despite Ceasefire, Saudi Strikes Tighten Supply 10 April 2026 · OILAV **Iran maintains Hormuz control post-ceasefire while Saudi loses 600K bpd to strikes, keeping oil bulls in charge despite correction.** ## Key levels - Brent: support 90, resistance 105 - WTI: support 91, resistance 107 ## Price Action & Technicals > The 11%+ correction looks like a classic war premium unwind, but structural supply loss keeps downside limited near $90. **Brent and WTI both shed over 11% this week** as the ceasefire announcement triggered profit-taking from the war premium, with Brent hitting $90.01 and WTI touching $91.05 before finding support. **OVX collapsed 11% to $81.74**, signaling reduced panic but still elevated at double normal levels. The selloff looks overdone against supply fundamentals — **Standard Chartered called the correction "likely overdone"** with mid-$90s representing value given structural disruptions. **Volume surged across contracts** with WTI hitting 1.5M contracts as algos and discretionary managers unwound war positions. **Technical damage is limited with both benchmarks holding above key $90 support**, and the 5-day rout creates oversold conditions ripe for snapback. The ceasefire is fragile at best, and **Iran's continued control of Hormuz shipping lanes** means the risk premium deserves to stay elevated. ## Supply & Disruptions > Physical supply destruction accelerating with Saudi capacity down 1.3M bpd while Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic. **Saudi production capacity dropped 600K bpd and East-West pipeline flows cut 700K bpd** from Iranian missile strikes, according to the Kingdom's energy ministry. This compounds the Hormuz chokepoint where **traffic remains "way down" with shipping firms avoiding the route despite ceasefire**. **QatarEnergy is preparing to restart LNG production** after March attacks, but **UAE CEO Al Jaber warned disruption will increase if Iran maintains Hormuz control**. **Argentina hit all-time high oil output** from Vaca Muerta shale, but this incremental supply is dwarfed by Middle East losses. **U.S. LNG exports hit record 11.7M tons in March** driven by panic buying, showing global energy scramble remains acute. The arithmetic is simple: **1.3M bpd Saudi loss plus continued Hormuz restrictions** far outweigh any marginal production gains elsewhere. ## Geopolitics & Shipping > Iran retains de facto control of Hormuz shipping despite ceasefire, with cryptocurrency toll demands showing no intention of full reopening. **Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned ships to stay in Iranian territorial waters** when crossing Hormuz, effectively maintaining control despite the ceasefire. **Trump demanded "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" without tolls**, but Iran reportedly plans cryptocurrency toll collection for tankers. **Shipping giants like MOL are holding back vessels** until receiving clear safety guidance, keeping the strait at near-standstill. **Israel restarted the Karish gas field** following ceasefire announcement, but broader regional tensions persist. **The IMO warned that Hormuz tolls would "set a dangerous precedent"** for global shipping lanes. **Container rates rose again this week** as fuel costs and Hormuz uncertainty ripple through supply chains, indicating the disruption extends far beyond crude oil. ## Positioning & Flows > Spec positioning remains elevated but physical tightness limits downside as end-user demand competes with financial flows. **Net speculative length sits at 130K contracts as of March 31**, likely higher now given war premium accumulation through April. **Family offices piled into oil after ESG drove out private equity**, with recent rally delivering "big gains" according to sources. The ceasefire selloff represents classic momentum unwind as **algos dumped war premium positions** on headline risk reduction. **Open interest jumped 87K contracts** in the latest CFTC data, showing continued institutional engagement despite volatility. **Money managers hold 214K long vs 84K short**, a 2.5:1 ratio that could unwind further if ceasefire holds. However, **physical market tightness should limit spec liquidation** as end users compete for available barrels. ## Macro & Cross-Asset > Energy security concerns override traditional macro headwinds, with policy pivoting toward supply security over climate goals. **Asian currencies weakening under energy cost pressure**, stirring memories of 1997 crisis though analysts say repeat unlikely. **Europe considering methane rule flexibilities** to secure oil and gas supply, showing policy response to energy security concerns. **Big Tech driving natural gas boom** as AI data centers create massive power demand, adding structural support to energy markets. **Federal funds at 3.64%** provide some demand headwind, but **energy security trumps monetary tightening** in current environment. **Maine set to become first state banning data centers** over energy concerns, highlighting growing tension between tech expansion and grid capacity. The macro setup favors energy as essential commodity over financial assets. ## What to watch - Hormuz tanker transit data - any meaningful traffic resumption - Saudi production restoration timeline from damaged facilities - Iran cryptocurrency toll implementation by weekend - EIA weekly inventory data Wednesday 10:30 ET - Trump ceasefire compliance statements through Friday ## Risks to the view - Ceasefire collapse within 48 hours (possible) - Saudi infrastructure repair taking weeks not days (likely) - Iran expanding toll demands to all Gulf traffic (tail risk) ## Outlook Oil correction overdone with Brent targeting $105 within two weeks as Hormuz remains shut and Saudi production struggles to recover. Physical tightness will reassert despite ceasefire headlines.