# Iran Reopens Hormuz With Toll Fees, China LNG Buying Spree

9 June 2026 · OILAV

**Iran signals Hormuz reopening with transit fees while China maxes LNG imports, but weak Chinese oil demand keeps rally capped.**

## Key levels

- Brent: support 93, resistance 98
- WTI: support 87.5, resistance 92

## Price Action & Technicals

> Bulls are running out of room with $93 Brent support looking fragile and WTI already breaking key levels.

**Brent closed at $93.11, down 2.02%** over five days as Iran-Israel escalation fears gave way to de-escalation signals. **WTI crashed harder, dropping 3.32%** to $89.95 amid persistent weak Chinese demand. **OVX volatility fell 4.7% to $58.36**, signaling traders are pricing out immediate war premium despite ongoing Hormuz closure.

**The $93 level in Brent is critical** — it's held three times since May and coincides with the 200-day moving average. **WTI's failure to hold $90 psychological support** exposes the $87.50 March low. Volume surged with **648K contracts in WTI** versus typical 400K, indicating real money exiting positions.

## Supply & Inventories

> Supply disruption narrative is cracking with Iran signaling Hormuz reopening and discounted crude appearing in Asia.

**Iran's Ambassador to Russia announced Hormuz will reopen with new transit fees**, marking the first official acknowledgment that the strait closure isn't permanent. **No timeline given, but toll regime suggests reopening within weeks** rather than months. **U.S. forces disabled their seventh Iranian shadow fleet tanker** in the Gulf of Oman, tightening the maritime blockade.

**Russian exports face sharp cuts this month** due to refinery disruptions and Ukraine's drone campaign forcing domestic fuel allocation. **Iraq and UAE are accelerating alternative pipeline projects** through Kurdistan-Turkey routes. **China's independent refiners are being offered Iranian crude at discounts to Brent** versus May premiums, signaling oversupply in available barrels.

## LNG & Gas Markets

> LNG markets are adapting faster than oil to Gulf disruptions, with China buying aggressively while new supply comes online.

**China's LNG imports hit their highest levels since the Iran war began** as state giants prepare for peak summer demand. **Natural gas futures collapsed 5.58% to $3.15** despite mounting cooling demand, with renewables eating power burn share. **TTF and JKM spiked Monday on Iran-Israel tensions** but gave back gains as conflict de-escalated.

**More Qatari LNG tankers successfully transited Hormuz** this week, proving the chokepoint remains partially navigable for gas shipments. **Asia's coal demand is set to jump 70 million tonnes** as the Gulf LNG shortage forces fuel switching. **Ksi Lisims LNG signed another 2 Mt/y deal with Germany's Uniper**, accelerating non-Gulf supply development.

## Positioning & Flows

> Specs remain net long but fresh shorts are building positions as the war premium starts looking excessive.

**Money managers held 124,259 net long contracts as of June 2**, down from recent highs but still elevated. **Open interest climbed 18,950 contracts**, suggesting fresh shorts entering rather than long liquidation. **Record supertanker orders surpassed the 2008 peak**, indicating shipowners expect prolonged disruptions and higher rates.

**Chinese buyers' reluctance to pay up for Iranian barrels** despite supply constraints shows physical demand weakness. **Airlines warning of fare increases** as jet fuel costs remain elevated, but demand destruction signals are emerging. **Big Tech's AI energy boom is driving new power purchase agreements**, competing with traditional fuel demand.

## Geopolitics & Macro

> Geopolitical risks are shifting from acute military escalation to chronic trade route disruptions and sanctions enforcement.

**Iran declared military operations against Israel "over"** following weekend exchanges, reducing immediate escalation risk. **Dollar Index at 120.08 and 10-year yields at 4.55%** are headwinds for commodities. **Trump administration's Alaska ANWR lease auction drew just two bidders**, highlighting weak industry appetite for new drilling.

**U.S. maritime blockade enforcement is intensifying** with seven Iranian tanker interdictions, but Iran's willingness to discuss Hormuz tolls suggests negotiation channels remain open. **Fed funds at 3.63%** continues to support dollar strength. **Houthis renewed Red Sea shipping threats** after Israel's latest Gaza operations, adding another supply route risk.

## What to watch

- EIA weekly petroleum data Wednesday 10:30 ET
- Iran's timeline announcement on Hormuz toll regime
- China's June oil import data due Thursday
- OPEC+ monthly oil market report Friday
- U.S. sanctions enforcement in Gulf of Oman

## Risks to the view

- Hormuz reopening timeline disappoints markets (likely)
- Chinese demand continues weakening through summer (possible)
- Israel-Iran conflict reignites over Gaza escalation (tail risk)

## Outlook

Oil faces a summer of transition as Iran signals Hormuz reopening while Chinese demand weakens. Expect $85-95 Brent range trading until clarity emerges on strait reopening timeline and toll structure.