# Brent Near $97 On Wide Range As Vol And Specs Rise 25 July 2026 · OILAV **Brent and WTI posted strong 5-day gains alongside a large crude stock draw, rising implied volatility, and a net-long speculative positioning skew.** ## Key levels - Brent: support 86.14, resistance 102.01 - WTI: support 80.27, resistance 93.5 ## Price Action & Technicals > Both crude benchmarks are up sharply on the week but trading well inside wide 5-day ranges, with implied volatility elevated near its recent high. Brent settled at **$96.78**, up **8.47%** over the 5-session window, trading within a wide **$86.14–$102.01** range. WTI closed at **$89.31**, up **7.31%**, ranging between **$80.27** and **$93.50**. The spread between the two benchmarks remains near typical levels given the recent range width in both. Product markets were comparatively flat: heating oil rose **1.50%** to **$4.18** and RBOB gasoline gained just **0.20%** to **$3.40**, both trading well inside their respective 5-day ranges. Natural gas ticked up **0.38%** to **$2.87**. Volume in WTI futures (**365,438**) dwarfed Brent volume (**33,923**) over the period. Crude Oil VIX (OVX) closed at **$68.00**, up **9.55%** on the 5-day window and near its recent high of **$71.26**, indicating implied volatility remains elevated relative to its own range. ## Supply & Inventories > A -7.2M bbl weekly crude draw coincided with refinery utilization at 97.2%, among the higher readings in this dataset. EIA data for the period ending 2026-07-24 show crude stocks at **404.5M bbl**, a weekly draw of **-7.2M bbl**. Refinery utilization stood at **97.2%**, a high absolute level consistent with strong crude runs. Production held at **13.80M bbl/day** and imports were **5.68M bbl/day**. The combination of a sizeable draw and high refinery utilization is consistent with elevated demand for crude runs during the period, though the dataset does not permit attribution beyond the reported figures themselves. ## Positioning & Flows > Speculative positioning was net long by nearly 87,000 contracts as of the most recent CFTC report, prior to the latest price gains. CFTC data as of 2026-07-21 show money manager long positions at **189,485** contracts against **102,580** shorts, producing net speculative length of **86,905** contracts — a long/short ratio of roughly **1.85**. Total open interest stood at **2,522,204** contracts. The net-long skew aligns directionally with the 5-day price gains in both Brent and WTI, though the CFTC report predates the latest futures closes by several sessions and does not capture positioning changes since 2026-07-21. ## Macro & Cross-Asset > Dollar index, yields, and rates are reported at levels concurrent with the oil price move, with no causal link established in this data. The US Dollar Index stood at **120.7105** on 2026-07-24, with the 10-Year Treasury yield at **4.69%** and the Federal Funds Rate at **3.63%** (as of 2026-07-01). CPI was last reported at **332.813** (2026-07-01). No cross-asset correlation to the crude price move can be established from this dataset beyond noting the levels above were concurrent with the reported oil price action. ## What to watch - OVX at 68.00, near its 5-day high of 71.26 - Crude stocks after a -7.2M bbl weekly draw - Refinery utilization at 97.2%, a high absolute reading in this window - Net speculative long position of 86,905 contracts as of 2026-07-21 - Wide 5-day trading range in both Brent ($86.14-$102.01) and WTI ($80.27-$93.50) ## Risks to the view - Elevated OVX (68.00, +9.55% on 5d) signals higher realized/implied volatility risk in either direction - Net speculative long positioning (86,905 contracts) leaves room for unwind risk if prices reverse - Wide 5-day price ranges in both benchmarks indicate the market has not established a stable technical level ## Outlook Price action shows both benchmarks up sharply over five sessions but still trading within wide established ranges, with the recent crude stock draw and high refinery utilization consistent with a tighter physical balance in the latest EIA report. Elevated OVX and a net-long speculative positioning base suggest the market remains sensitive to further inventory or positioning shifts, with no additional causal signals present in this dataset.