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Brent Breaks $108 as Hormuz Deadlock Persists Despite Iran Peace Feints

Oil holds above $100 despite peace noise as Hormuz stays shut and specs remain long 135K contracts.

Ключевые уровни

Price Action & Technicals

Oil's holding $100+ despite peace headlines proves the physical market trumps geopolitical noise.

Brent crude closed at $108.17, holding firm above the psychological $100 level despite Friday's profit-taking on Iran peace proposal headlines. The 5-day divergence tells the story: Brent down 2.78% while WTI gained 2.01%, reflecting the Atlantic-Pacific supply split as Hormuz blockade redirects flows. Oil volatility (OVX) at $75.40 remains elevated, down just 0.57% on the week, signaling traders aren't buying the peace narrative yet. Technical resistance now sits at $114.66 (weekly high) with support firming at the $100.60 weekly low.

Product cracks are diverging sharply — gasoline RBOB up 0.98% to $3.60 while heating oil slipped 0.62% to $3.95, reflecting seasonal demand patterns and refinery run cuts from crude supply constraints. The WTI-Brent spread has blown out to over $6, the widest since the Saudi drone attacks in 2019.

Supply & Inventories

Physical barrels remain tight globally despite Iran peace noise — storage constraints are real.

The Hormuz blockade enters month three with only one LNG tanker managing transit this week — an India-linked vessel carrying cooking fuel that underscores how selective Iran's enforcement remains. US naval blockade has forced Iranian crude onto floating storage, with analysts reporting Tehran's onshore tanks approaching capacity. Meanwhile, China reversed its refined fuel export curbs, signaling domestic inventories are comfortable enough to resume shipments to tight Asian markets.

EIA data shows US crude production steady at 13.586 million bpd with imports at 5.750 million bpd, but the missing weekly inventory change suggests supply chain disruptions are masking the true draw. Venezuela hit a seven-year export high at 1.23 million bpd in April, up 14% month-over-month, as Caracas capitalizes on $100+ pricing. Russian oil revenues are surging despite sanctions, with Moscow's crude finding eager buyers at discounts.

Geopolitics & Disruptions

Peace talks are theatre — Trump's War Powers games won't reopen Hormuz quickly.

Trump faces the War Powers deadline but the White House claims hostilities are "terminated" even as the naval blockade continues — classic Washington doublespeak that markets aren't buying. Iran's updated peace proposal through Pakistani mediators triggered Friday's selloff, but Tehran's currency hitting record lows against the dollar suggests the regime is feeling real economic pain. Another tanker hijacking off Yemen's coast (M/T EUREKA) shows maritime risks extending beyond Hormuz.

US sanctions escalation hit the Iran-China oil pipeline and financial channels converting oil sales to cash, squeezing Tehran's revenue streams. Spirit Airlines collapsed citing fuel cost surge from blocked Hormuz supplies, the first major corporate casualty. The Mediterranean yacht season is moving west as Eastern Med routes become too risky — a proxy for broader supply chain disruptions.

Positioning & Flows

Specs remain heavily long with expanding open interest — no capitulation despite peace noise.

CFTC data shows money managers holding 135,501 net long contracts as of April 28, with longs at 219,650 vs shorts at 84,149 — a substantial bullish position that hasn't unwound despite recent volatility. Open interest jumped 89,173 contracts to 2.89 million, indicating new players entering rather than position squaring. This suggests institutional conviction that $100+ oil is sustainable.

Asian refiners are scrambling for alternatives to Iranian and Russian crude, with India-linked vessels making rare Hormuz transits for essential supplies. TC Energy announced a $1.5 billion pipeline expansion in Appalachia to meet surging power demand, signaling long-term bullish infrastructure investment. The positioning data contradicts the peace rally narrative — smart money is staying long.

Macro & Cross-Asset

Energy fundamentals are overriding macro headwinds as physical scarcity drives pricing power.

10-year Treasury yields at 4.4% are creating headwinds for risk assets, but oil's war premium is overriding macro concerns. Federal funds rate at 3.64% provides policy support for growth assets. Exxon and Chevron both beat Q1 estimates on higher oil prices, with XOM CEO warning "the market hasn't seen the full impact" of Iran supply disruptions — a notably hawkish tone from America's largest oil producer.

Natural gas spiked 8.64% to $2.78 this week on power demand and LNG export growth, with Golden Pass Train 2 expected mechanically complete by year-end. The energy complex is decoupling from broader markets as physical constraints override financial flows. AI energy demand surge from Big Tech is creating structural power demand that supports both oil and gas pricing.

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Прогноз

Oil holds above $100 through May as Hormuz blockade persists despite peace theatre. Brent targets $115 on continued supply constraints, with downside limited to $95 on any genuine breakthrough.

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