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Brent Collapses Below $102 as Hormuz Peace Hopes Fade

Oil plunged 7% this week as U.S.-Iran ceasefire unravels with fresh tanker strikes and Hormuz blockade enforcement intensifies.

Ключевые уровни

Price Action & Technicals

The technical picture has turned decisively bearish with key support levels breached and momentum indicators rolling over.

Brent crude collapsed to $101.29, down 7.8% this week after touching highs of $114.44 early in the session. The break below $102 support confirms the bearish reversal from last week's war premium peak. WTI followed suit at $95.42, shedding 6.7% as the futures curve steepened into deep backwardation. Products got hammered harder — RBOB gasoline crashed 7.2% to $3.36 while heating oil fell 3.25%. The OVX volatility index remained elevated at 72.15 despite falling from weekly highs above 80, signaling continued risk premium in the market.

Technically, Brent has broken through multiple support levels and now faces a test of the $96-98 range that held during the February pre-war selloff. The RSI has rolled over from overbought territory while volume surged to 185,945 contracts — classic signs of a momentum breakdown. WTI's failure to hold above $100 psychological support opens the door to a retest of $88-90 lows.

Geopolitics & Blockade Escalation

Escalating military action is killing ceasefire hopes and ensuring the Hormuz blockade persists longer than markets initially priced.

Friday's U.S. strikes on two Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman shattered any remaining hopes for the fragile ceasefire holding. The Navy disabled additional Iranian vessels as Washington expanded enforcement of its maritime blockade targeting Iranian oil exports. Iran responded by seizing the 'Ocean Koi' tanker — ironically carrying its own sanctioned crude — highlighting the chaos in regional shipping lanes.

Britain deployed HMS Dragon to the Middle East for potential Hormuz escort missions, while Qatari LNG tankers continue navigating toward the strait despite the risks. The UAE faced fresh missile attacks this week, expanding the conflict footprint beyond the immediate Hormuz chokepoint. Some LNG cargoes are slipping through via concealed vessel movements, but overall throughput remains severely constrained.

Supply & Strategic Response

Despite U.S. drilling increases, global supply constraints from the Iranian blockade cannot be quickly offset by new production.

U.S. rig count climbed to 548 as operators respond to Trump's "drill baby drill" mandate, but industry executives warn that U.S. production cannot solve the global supply crisis created by Iranian disruptions. The SPR is being drained again through emergency releases, with Trump reportedly considering tapping oil under military bases to boost reserves.

Canadian Natural hit record gas output in Q1 while keeping Montney supplies "in the bank," but Cenovus warned that oil sands growth is drying up due to policy uncertainty. Global spare capacity remains critically tight with nearly a billion barrels of oil lost since the Hormuz blockade began, according to energy executives. The shortage is growing worse every day as Iranian exports remain offline.

Positioning & Market Flows

Speculative positioning is unwinding rapidly as traders abandon war premium plays amid ceasefire breakdown.

CFTC data shows net speculative longs at 131,956 contracts as of May 5th, likely much lower after this week's washout. Open interest surged by 115,738 contracts, suggesting heavy liquidation and new short positioning as the war premium unwinds. The 7% weekly decline represents one of the sharpest reversals since the conflict began in February.

Upstream deal values collapsed to $5.55 billion in March from $32 billion in February as price uncertainty paralyzed M&A activity. U.S. container imports are slowing as retailers pull back amid the Iran crisis, suggesting broader economic impacts from sustained high energy costs. Money managers appear to be cutting risk exposure ahead of what many see as a prolonged conflict.

Outlook & Cross-Asset Impact

Markets are pricing in prolonged conflict rather than quick resolution, making oil vulnerable to further demand destruction despite supply tightness.

The collapse in peace expectations is paradoxically bearish for oil as traders realize this conflict will persist longer than initially thought, creating sustained high prices that destroy demand. Trump's changing Iran strategy — now focused on reopening Hormuz "at all costs" — suggests military escalation may accelerate. However, the physical supply shortage remains acute with LNG demand supported by the crisis.

European trade tensions with Trump's feud with Germany's Merz complicating EU deals, while AI-powered cyberattacks pose new risks to energy infrastructure according to IMF warnings. The combination of sustained supply disruption and demand destruction from high prices creates a volatile equilibrium that could break either direction depending on military developments.

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Прогноз

Oil faces further downside pressure as ceasefire collapse ensures prolonged conflict and sustained high prices that will destroy demand faster than supply can adjust. Near-term target is $96 Brent unless military escalation triggers fresh supply fears.

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