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Iran Reopens Hormuz With Toll Fees, China LNG Buying Spree

Iran signals Hormuz reopening with transit fees while China maxes LNG imports, but weak Chinese oil demand keeps rally capped.

Ключевые уровни

Price Action & Technicals

Bulls are running out of room with $93 Brent support looking fragile and WTI already breaking key levels.

Brent closed at $93.11, down 2.02% over five days as Iran-Israel escalation fears gave way to de-escalation signals. WTI crashed harder, dropping 3.32% to $89.95 amid persistent weak Chinese demand. OVX volatility fell 4.7% to $58.36, signaling traders are pricing out immediate war premium despite ongoing Hormuz closure.

The $93 level in Brent is critical — it's held three times since May and coincides with the 200-day moving average. WTI's failure to hold $90 psychological support exposes the $87.50 March low. Volume surged with 648K contracts in WTI versus typical 400K, indicating real money exiting positions.

Supply & Inventories

Supply disruption narrative is cracking with Iran signaling Hormuz reopening and discounted crude appearing in Asia.

Iran's Ambassador to Russia announced Hormuz will reopen with new transit fees, marking the first official acknowledgment that the strait closure isn't permanent. No timeline given, but toll regime suggests reopening within weeks rather than months. U.S. forces disabled their seventh Iranian shadow fleet tanker in the Gulf of Oman, tightening the maritime blockade.

Russian exports face sharp cuts this month due to refinery disruptions and Ukraine's drone campaign forcing domestic fuel allocation. Iraq and UAE are accelerating alternative pipeline projects through Kurdistan-Turkey routes. China's independent refiners are being offered Iranian crude at discounts to Brent versus May premiums, signaling oversupply in available barrels.

LNG & Gas Markets

LNG markets are adapting faster than oil to Gulf disruptions, with China buying aggressively while new supply comes online.

China's LNG imports hit their highest levels since the Iran war began as state giants prepare for peak summer demand. Natural gas futures collapsed 5.58% to $3.15 despite mounting cooling demand, with renewables eating power burn share. TTF and JKM spiked Monday on Iran-Israel tensions but gave back gains as conflict de-escalated.

More Qatari LNG tankers successfully transited Hormuz this week, proving the chokepoint remains partially navigable for gas shipments. Asia's coal demand is set to jump 70 million tonnes as the Gulf LNG shortage forces fuel switching. Ksi Lisims LNG signed another 2 Mt/y deal with Germany's Uniper, accelerating non-Gulf supply development.

Positioning & Flows

Specs remain net long but fresh shorts are building positions as the war premium starts looking excessive.

Money managers held 124,259 net long contracts as of June 2, down from recent highs but still elevated. Open interest climbed 18,950 contracts, suggesting fresh shorts entering rather than long liquidation. Record supertanker orders surpassed the 2008 peak, indicating shipowners expect prolonged disruptions and higher rates.

Chinese buyers' reluctance to pay up for Iranian barrels despite supply constraints shows physical demand weakness. Airlines warning of fare increases as jet fuel costs remain elevated, but demand destruction signals are emerging. Big Tech's AI energy boom is driving new power purchase agreements, competing with traditional fuel demand.

Geopolitics & Macro

Geopolitical risks are shifting from acute military escalation to chronic trade route disruptions and sanctions enforcement.

Iran declared military operations against Israel "over" following weekend exchanges, reducing immediate escalation risk. Dollar Index at 120.08 and 10-year yields at 4.55% are headwinds for commodities. Trump administration's Alaska ANWR lease auction drew just two bidders, highlighting weak industry appetite for new drilling.

U.S. maritime blockade enforcement is intensifying with seven Iranian tanker interdictions, but Iran's willingness to discuss Hormuz tolls suggests negotiation channels remain open. Fed funds at 3.63% continues to support dollar strength. Houthis renewed Red Sea shipping threats after Israel's latest Gaza operations, adding another supply route risk.

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Прогноз

Oil faces a summer of transition as Iran signals Hormuz reopening while Chinese demand weakens. Expect $85-95 Brent range trading until clarity emerges on strait reopening timeline and toll structure.

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