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Brent, WTI Sink Over 10% In Five Sessions As OVX Retreats

Brent and WTI both fell roughly 10% over the five-session window while the crude options-implied volatility index pulled back sharply from an 81 high.

Ключевые уровни

Price Action & Technicals

Both benchmarks fell roughly 10% over five sessions while implied volatility, though retreating, remains elevated relative to its own recent low of $50.62.

Brent crude closed at $79.45, down 10.76% over the five-session window, trading between a high of $93.14 and a low of $78.13. WTI mirrored the move, closing at $75.22, down 10.01%, with a range of $86.87 to $74.24. RBOB gasoline was the weakest product, falling 13.58%, while heating oil declined 9.82%.

Crude Oil VIX (^OVX) spiked to a five-day high of $81.19 before settling at $51.48, a decline of 18.85% from its prior reading but still well above levels typically associated with calm markets. The combination of a double-digit price drop alongside a still-elevated but falling volatility gauge indicates the complex moved through a high-volatility repricing event within the window, though the specific driver is not identifiable from this dataset.

Supply & Inventories

Crude stocks built by 2.5M bbl even as refinery utilization held near 96.5%, a level that leaves limited room for further throughput increases.

EIA data for the week ended 2026-07-31 showed crude stocks at 407.0M bbl, a weekly build of +2.5M bbl. Refinery utilization stood at a high 96.5%, with production steady at 13.80M bbl/day and imports at 6.20M bbl/day.

The combination of a stock build alongside near-record refinery utilization suggests crude runs are near capacity even as inventories accumulate, a balance that is not explained by demand data in this package.

Positioning & Flows

Money managers remain net long by over 100,000 contracts even after a double-digit price decline, leaving positioning exposed to further downside if unwound.

CFTC data as of 2026-08-04 shows money managers holding 191,726 long contracts against 90,676 short, for a net speculative position of 101,050 contracts — a long-to-short ratio of roughly 2.1:1. Total open interest stood at 2,596,877 contracts.

The still-sizable net long position sits alongside a greater than 10% price decline over the same window, indicating that spec longs entered or held positions through a period of sharp downside price action. This dataset does not show whether the long position was reduced intraweek, only the snapshot as of the report date.

Macro & Cross-Asset

The dollar index near 119 and 10-year yields above 4.6% coincide with, but do not directly explain, the crude price decline in this dataset.

The US Dollar Index stood at 119.39 on 2026-08-05, a level consistent with continued dollar strength. The 10-Year Treasury yield was 4.63%, the Federal Funds Rate 3.63% (as of 2026-07-01), and CPI at 332.813 (2026-07-01).

A firm dollar alongside elevated Treasury yields is a headwind typically associated with dollar-denominated commodities, though this dataset does not establish a direct causal link to the crude price decline.

За чем следить

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Прогноз

With Brent and WTI both down roughly 10% over five sessions and holding just above their respective lows ($78.13 and $74.24), technical support in that zone will be the near-term focus. A net spec long position above 100,000 contracts alongside still-elevated OVX readings suggests positioning risk remains skewed to further downside if long liquidation continues.

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